Dubai, United Arab Emirates-Sunday 24 November 2019 [ AETOS Wire ]After Turkey also India is to be joining Russia's Rouble-based alternative to SWIFT. Together with China, which is already linked, these countries could create the widest demographic area using the system. According to Gulf Brokers analysis, the dominance of the U.S. dollar is to be challenged.
After repeated warnings over the past few years, Turkey and Russia signed recently an agreement to increase the use of rouble and lira in cross-border payments, when Turkey signed to join the Russian alternative to SWIFT, the international telecommunications protocol used by banks worldwide, including central banks.
As part of the Turkish agreement, local banks and businesses will connect to the Russian version of the Swift system. Additionally, the infrastructure in Turkey should be improved so as to allow Russia introduce their MIR cards as an alternative to MasterCard and VISA in the country.
Apart from Turkey, Russia also signed agreements with China to strengthen trade between the two countries, and to increase the percentage of bilateral trade in yuan and rouble. The bilateral trade between China and Russia rose from $69,6 billion in 2016 to $107,1 billion last year. China is Russia’s largest trading partner both for imports and exports.
India’s participation in “the Russian SWIFT” is probable to be negotiated on BRICS summit in Brasil.
It is probable that dollar is getting weaker against EUR and CNY in the long term. According to BIS statistics, dollar was parity counterpart to about 82 % in nominal transfers in the beginning of the year. Unless the US politics rationalize, the situation will change in the short term.
Syam KP
Chief Analyst
Gulf Brokers
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